CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-05-03T21:17:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-05-03T21:17ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30443/-1
CME Note: Northern piece of one eruption that appears to have sent fronts in two directions. CME seen to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2 and 2-3 frames of LASCO C3, due to a data gap in SOHO LASCO beginning at 2024-05-03T23:27Z in C2 (2024-05-03T23:31Z in C3) and an ongoing data gap in STEREO COR2A. Best observed in SDO AIA 193 as an eruption sourced around N09E33, with a broad, faint dimming seen to the north and darker dimming (spanning E52->E26 and S08->N14) seen to the south. Also observed as wide field line openings in SDO AIA 171. This front is the northern of the pair of fronts observed, and more likely to correlate to the northern end of this dimming. There are no CME arrival signatures in solar wind.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-06T19:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/30447/1 Model Inputs: 2024-05-03T21:17:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-32.0, Lat.=14.0, Speed=548.0, HalfAngle=26.0, Time21.5=2024-05-04T03:25Z 2024-05-03T21:28:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-32.0, Lat.=-13.0, Speed=509.0, HalfAngle=18.0, Time21.5=2024-05-04T03:53Z Model Output: Earth Impact: Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-05-06T19:00Z (+- 7 hours) (kp)90=3 (kp)180=5 Other Location(s) Impact: STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-05-06T18:00Z Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240504_032500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240504_032500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240504_032500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240504_032500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240504_032500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240504_032500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240504_032500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240504_032500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240504_032500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240504_032500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240504_032500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240504_032500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240504_032500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240504_032500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gifLead Time: 45.63 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M) on 2024-05-04T21:22Z
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